Goalkeepers 'gambler's fallacy' impacts penalty shoot-outs

Dutch goalkeeper Tim Krul making a save in the penalty shoot-out win against Costa Rica

By Matt McGrathEnvironment correspondent, BBC News

Goalkeepers facing penalty shoot-outs make a predictable error that could influence the outcome say researchers.

Psychologists studied videos from World Cups and European Championships between 1976 and 2012.

They found that after three kicks in the same direction, keepers were more likely to dive the opposite way on the next shot.

Luckily for them, penalty takers have so far failed to exploit this predictable pattern.

Four knockout games in the 2014 World Cup in Brazil were decided by penalties - a record shared with Italy in 1990 and Germany in 2006.

Gambling with the game

Goalkeepers were the heroes with the likes of Brazil's Julio Cesar and Tim Krul from the Netherlands making game winning saves at crucial moments.

While scientists have sought to define the perfect penalty in the past, this new study from researchers at University College London (UCL), tries to statistically evaluate goalkeeping patterns in shoot-outs.

They conclude that the keepers in these situations often fall prey to what's termed the "gambler's fallacy".

The fallacy can be seen in the flipping of a coin. If there's a run of "heads", many people mistakenly believe there is then an increased chance that the next one will be "tails".

The reality is that there is a fifty-fifty chance on every toss, regardless of the length of the sequence.

Brazil's Julio Cesar saves from Chile's Alexis Sanchez in a second round shoot-out

In their analysis the researchers found that almost every action, such as the sides of the goal that the kickers aimed for, and the way the goalkeepers dived, were random events.

Crucially the researchers found that the goalkeeper's decisions were predictable after three kicks had gone in the same direction.

"After three, it starts to be more significant than chance," said lead author Erman Misirlisoy, from UCL.

"Around 69% of dives are in the opposite direction to the last ball, and 31% in the same direction as last after three consecutive balls in the same direction."

A good example of this was in the England Portugal Euro Championship quarter final in 2004. The game went to penalties, and the first three Portuguese players all aimed at the left of the goal.

On the fourth penalty, the English keeper, David James, went to the right. The next Portuguese player stayed left again and scored. Portugal won the shootout 6-5.

"If kickers were to identify non-random patterns in the goalkeeper's behaviour, they could really win the match quite easily without even a perfect kick. They would just have to kick the opposite way," said Erman Misirlisoy.

If players were to take a group decision to all kick the same way, the fourth penalty in the shoot-out should offer them their best chance of scoring.

However, the problem for penalty takers is that the expectation from the crowd and their team mates is that they will score.

This weight may explain why they don't work together or communicate well as a group.

"Kickers are under enormous pressure, focussed on the moment of their own kick. Each individual kicker may not pay enough attention to the sequence of preceding kicks to predict what the goalkeeper will do next," said co-author Prof Patrick Haggard.

Argentina's Sergio Romero makes a vital save against the Dutch in this year's World Cup

If goalkeepers want to improve their odds of saving shots they must resist the gambler's fallacy. Their best bet would be to have planned a sequence of dives and to stick with it.

"The best point for the keeper is to become more random," said Erman Misirlisoy.

"There is nothing from him to exploit and he is only going to open himself up to being exploited if he does produce a pattern."

The one area of the goal that the psychologists didn't examine is the centre.

"In our analysis we decided to leave out the middle as it is so rare. It's less than 10% of cases, and goalkeepers remain in the middle only 2.5% of the time, so kickers could possibly exploit this by kicking down the middle more often."

The study has been published in the journal, Current Biology.

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"If kickers were to identify non-random patterns in the goalkeeper's behaviour, they could really win the match quite easily without even a perfect kick”

Erman MisirlisoyUCL

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'Tape measure test' call on type 2 diabetes

By James GallagherHealth editor, BBC News website

People are being urged to whip out the tape measure to assess their risk of developing type 2 diabetes.

Public Health England said there was a "very high risk" of diabetes with waistlines over 40in (102cm) in men or 35in (88cm) in women.

It warned that the disease could "cripple" the NHS, 10% of whose budget was already spent on it.

The charity Diabetes UK said the country was facing a "devastating" type 2 diabetes epidemic.

Type 2 diabetes is an inability to control blood sugar levels that has dire consequences for health.

It increases the risk of heart attacks and strokes, is the leading cause of blindness in people of working age, damages blood vessels and nerves and results in 100 foot amputations each week in the UK.

If someone has type 2 diabetes at the age of 50, they can expect to die six years earlier than someone without the disease.

How fat?

Obesity is the biggest risk factor driving the disease.

Public Health England (PHE) says men with a 40in (102cm) waist are five times more likely to get type 2 diabetes than those with a slimmer waistline.

Women were at three times greater risk once they reached 35in (88cm).

The PHE report also warns men with a 37-40in waistline (94-102cm) or women at 31-35in (80-88cm) may not be in the most dangerous group, but still faced a "higher risk" of the disease.

Dr Alison Tedstone, the chief nutritionist at Public Health England, said obesity was now so prevalent "we don't even recognise it".

She urged people to "keep an eye on your waist measurement" as losing weight was "the biggest thing you can do" to combat the disease.

Earlier this month, the National Institute of Health and Care Excellence said people with type 2 diabetes should have weight loss surgery.

Chocolate or fruit? Type 2 diabetes is mostly caused by lifestyle choices

However, many people mistakenly think their trouser size counts as their waistline, conveniently forgetting about a bothersome beer belly.

Dr Tedstone told the BBC: "People get it wrong, particularly men.

"They measure their waist under their bellies, saying they haven't got fatter because their trouser size is the same, forgetting they're wearing their trousers lower and lower.

"So the tip is to measure across the belly button."

'Unsustainable'

A different form of diabetes - type 1 - is caused by the body's own immune system rebelling and destroying the cells needed to control blood sugar.

About 3.2 million people have been diagnosed with some form of diabetes in the UK and that figure is projected to reach five million by 2025.

The NHS already spends a 10th of its budget on the diseases.

"That's a huge amount of money and that could possibly double over the next few years, and that could cripple the NHS," said Dr Tedstone.

Baroness Barbara Young, the chief executive of Diabetes UK, said: "With many millions of people in the UK now at high risk of type 2 diabetes, this is an epidemic that looks likely to get even worse, and if this happens then the impact on the nation's health would be devastating and the increase in costs to the NHS would be unsustainable."

She said the government needed to intervene.

"It needs to urgently consider making healthy food more accessible through taxation, other financial measures and more robust regulation of the food industry," she said.

Prof Jonathan Valabhji, the national clinical director for obesity and diabetes for NHS England, said: "We are seeing huge increases in type 2 diabetes because of the rising rates of obesity, and we clearly need a concerted effort on the prevention, early diagnosis and management of diabetes to slow its significant impact not only on individual lives but also on the NHS."

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Call for 'radical action' on drug-resistant malaria

Malaria-infected red blood cells

By Helen BriggsHealth editor, BBC News website

Drug-resistant malaria is spreading in South East Asia, and has now reached the Cambodia-Thailand border, according to a study.

"Radical action" is needed to prevent further spread of malaria parasites resistant to key drugs, say scientists.

The spread could undermine recent gains in malaria control, they report in the New England Journal of Medicine.

No evidence was found of resistance in three African sites - Kenya, Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The study analysed blood samples from more than 1,000 malaria patients in 10 countries across Asia and Africa.

It found the malaria parasite had developed resistance to front-line drugs known as artemisinins, in western and northern Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam, and eastern Burma, also known as Myanmar.

There were signs of emerging resistance in central Burma, southern Laos and north-eastern Cambodia.

Of particular concern was the corner of Asia on the Cambodia-Thailand border, where resistance to other anti-malarial drugs has emerged in the past.

"Resistance is now present over much of South East Asia," said lead scientist Prof Nicholas White, of the University of Oxford.

"It's worse than we expected.

"We have to act quickly if we are going to do anything."

Prof White said it might be possible to prevent further spread, but conventional malaria-control approaches would not be enough.

"We will need to take more radical action and make this a global public health priority, without delay," he added.

Meanwhile, a separate study, also published in the New England Journal of Medicine, reported early results of an anti-malarial drug in the pipeline.

Commenting on the research, Dr Brian Greenwood, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said: "The emergence of artemisinin-resistant parasites is a major threat to further advances in malaria control.

"Every effort needs to be made to contain their spread while at the same time pushing forward with the development of effective alternative treatments that are almost certainly going to be needed in the future."

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"We will need to take more radical action and make this a global public health priority, without delay”

Prof Nicholas WhiteUniversity of Oxford

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Adidas scales back in Russia and issues profit warning

Shares in sportswear maker, Adidas, have tumbled after the company issued a profit warning and said it will open fewer stores in Russia than planned.

The German sports equipment maker saw its shares fall 16% on Thursday, despite its recent lucky strike as sponsor of World Cup winners Germany.

Adidas blamed uncertainty in Russia and higher marketing spending during the World Cup for the problems.

It said net income could be nearly a third lower than forecast.

The company said net income for 2014 would be around 650m euros (£515m) compared to the 830m-930m euros previously targeted.

Adidas runs 1,000 stores in Russia but, due to a fall in the value of the rouble and uncertainty in the consumer market there since the start of the Ukraine crisis, the company will now close some of them and open fewer new stores than planned.

'Catastrophic'

The company will also overhaul California-based golf brand TaylorMade, which makes golf bags, clubs and clothing for the US market after an 18% drop in sales.

"Everything we announced today has one objective: to strengthen our brands, to drive consumer desire, and to set our group up for long-term success," chief executive Herbert Hainer said in a statement.

"We will return the group to a higher and more consistent level of earnings growth in the mid to long term."

Ingo Speich, a fund manager at Union Investment, a large investor in Adidas, said: "The profit warning could almost have been predicted but the extent of it is catastrophic...unfavourable conditions are no excuse."

Adidas vies with rival Nike, the world's biggest sportswear firm for market share. But Adidas had taken a lead in the Russian market.

Nike is making gains in Europe, Adidas' home turf. But Adidas has recently taken over from Nike as sponsors of Manchester United in a record $1.3 bn (£770m) deal.

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Snowden's temporary asylum status expires in Russia

Such is Mr Snowden's status as the world's best-known whistleblower that he was asked by the UK's Channel Four News to deliver their annual "alternative" Christmas message

Fugitive US whistleblower Edward Snowden's year-long leave to stay in Russia has expired without confirmation that it will be extended.

His lawyer said he could stay in the country while his application for an extension was being processed.

The man who exposed US intelligence practices to the world's media won leave to remain in Moscow a year ago.

Little is known about his activities in Russia - where he is living and whether he is working.

In June, Edward Snowden spoke by video link to a session of the Council of Europe in Strasbourg on improving protection for whistleblowers

The man who told the NSA's secrets has followers in Germany who would like to see him granted asylum there. This poster was stuck up near the partially finished new headquarters of the Federal Intelligence Service in Berlin

However, he caused a sensation in April when he appeared in a recorded message on President Vladimir Putin's annual televised question-and-answer session to ask if Russia spied on its citizens.

Anatoly Kucherena, the lawyer who acts as his spokesman, stressed in an interview for Russian TV on Thursday that his client had been given "temporary leave to remain" in Russia, not "political asylum".

Mr Snowden fled shortly after leaking details of the US National Security Agency's (NSA) international surveillance and telephone-tapping operation.

A US lawyer who has advised Mr Snowden said that he was likely to stay in Russia for the time being.

"I know ultimately he would love to be able to come home or seek refuge in a country of his choice," Jesselyn Radack said in an interview for Australia's ABC Radio on Wednesday.

Speaking at the end of May, US Secretary of State John Kerry urged Mr Snowden to "man up" and return home to face justice.

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Eurozone inflation slips further into the 'danger zone'

Eurozone inflation has fallen to its lowest level since the height of the financial crisis, sliding further into what the European Central Bank (ECB) has described as a "danger zone".

Prices rose in the single currency area by 0.4% in July, from 0.5% in June.

The ECB considers that an inflation rate of below 1% poses a risk of deflation.

Separate figures show that unemployment in the region fell slightly to 11.5% in June compared to 11.6% in May.

The new inflation figures from the European Union's statistical office, Eurostat, show that the rate remains persistently below the ECB's target rate of 2%. Prices have risen at an annualised rate of less than 1% for the last ten months.

Central Bank governor, Mario Draghi, has previously warned that he would deem inflation below 1% to be in a "danger zone", which could lead to prices tipping into a deflationary spiral.

Analysis: BBC economics correspondent, Andrew Walker

Deflation - falling prices or below zero inflation - in the eurozone has come a step closer.

Several individual countries have already had at least a brush with it. Spain's new figures show a fall in prices over the previous twelve months. Greece and Portugal already had inflation below zero.

It can be a serious problem - not inevitably; it depends on the circumstances. But it is clear that the European Central Bank is very keen to avoid deflation.

The new figures increase the chance that the ECB will embark on a full scale programme of quantitative easing (QE), buying financial assets such as government debt with newly created money in an effort to push inflation up (yes really).

It's a sign of how weak the eurozone economy is that this debate is underway just as the US Federal Reserve seems close to ending its own QE programme.

In June the ECB introduced a package of measures to boost growth and tackle the threat of inflation.

It cut interest rates, including reducing the bank deposit rate to below zero, and made available cheap long term loans to banks. It promised to stand ready to take more action if inflation continued to fall.

Lower still

Brian Tora, from the investment managers J.M. Finn and Co said it was hard to see what more the ECB could do if inflation fails to respond to the measures already taken.

"They could instigate a programme of asset purchases. But it's more complicated for the ECB than for a central bank that's just responsible for one nation state."

The ECB has not undertaken large-scale asset purchases in the same way as the UK and US central banks.

"But it's worth remembering that [Mr] Draghi said last autumn it would do whatever it took to keep Europe out of recession," said Mr. Tora.

Analysts also point to a fall in energy prices as contributing to lower inflation.

"There is undeniably a very real risk that eurozone consumer price inflation could go lower still ... barring an appreciable rise in oil and gas prices resulting from geopolitical factors hitting supplies,'' said Howard Archer, economist at analysis group IHS.

Core inflation which excludes food and fuel costs was unchanged for July at 0.8%.

More jobs

The eurozone jobs data provided a gentle pointer in the opposite direction, however, towards stronger growth.

The number of registered unemployed in the eurozone stood at 18.41 million in June, down 152,000 from May.

The unemployment rate in the 18-nation single currency region June dipped to 11.5% compared to 12% a year ago.

In the wider 28-member European Union the jobless rate also edged lower from 10.3% in May to 10.2% in June.

Austria's unemployment rate is the lowest in the region at 5%, followed by Germany at 5.1%.

However, Greece, with an unemployment rate of 27.3% and Spain, at 24.5%, are still grappling with severe levels of joblessness.

Jonathan Loynes at Capital Economics said: "There is still a lot of spare capacity in the labour market, adding to the downward pressure on wages and prices."

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Virginia ex-governor Bob McDonnell's wife 'sought gifts'

Williams said he refused to give Mrs McDonnell money without talking to the governor first

The star witness in a corruption trial of the ex-governor of Virginia and his wife has testified the former first lady sought gifts and loans in return for help with his business.

Prosecutors say Jonnie Williams gave Bob and Maureen McDonnell gifts and loans totalling $165,000 (£97,000).

Mr McDonnell denies wrongdoing. His wife says their marriage was frayed and she had a "crush" on Mr Williams.

Mr Williams is due to resume testifying in Richmond on Thursday.

Mr Williams, the head of a vitamin supplements company called Star Scientific, testified on Wednesday that Mrs McDonnell told him the couple were broke and in debt, and asked him for money and to pay for high-end shopping trips, offering to connect him to the governor in return.

"She said to me: 'I have a background in nutritional supplements, and I can be helpful to you with this project with your company,'" Mr Williams testified on Wednesday in a federal court in Richmond, on the third day of the McDonnells' trial, according to the Washington Post.

"'The governor says it's okay for me to help you, but I need you to help me with this financial situation.'"

Mr Williams, to whom prosecutors have granted immunity, said he insisted on speaking to the governor before giving her any cash, and testified that the governor subsequently thanked him for his generosity.

Mr McDonnell, once a rising star in the Republican Party with aspirations for national office, left office in disgrace in January at the end of his term. Virginia governors are barred from running for a second consecutive term, and he was succeeded by Democrat Terry McAuliffe.

Prosecutors say Mr McDonnell was in financial dire straights, and traded on his position to win gifts of travel and cash from Mr Williams. They say he helped arrange meetings with state officials for Mr Williams and pitched his vitamin supplements in his own dealings with officials.

They have described Mrs McDonnell as a woman with a taste for luxury who was willing to use her husband's position to extract gifts and loans from the wealthy businessman.

Mr McDonnell argues he was only doing for Mr Williams what he would for any Virginia businessman. Mrs McDonnell's lawyers have said their marriage was frayed - keeping her from conspiring with the governor to promote Star Scientific in exchange for gifts.

McDonnell, (centre) at the court on Tuesday, was once seen as a potential vice-presidential candidate

Lawyers for Mrs McDonnell, shown in a May 2011 file photo with Mr Williams, say she had personal affection for him and that her marriage to the governor was on the rocks

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Leaked memo on CIA says 'No American proud' of abuse

The Senate report appears to conclude some of the interrogations of prisoners amounted to torture

A secret Senate report on CIA interrogations "tells a story of which no American is proud", a leaked White House memo states.

The report was described in a draft memo of media talking points proposed by the state department, which was first reported by the AP news agency.

It concludes CIA interrogations were brutal and produced little intelligence of value, according to reports.

The White House has chosen not to prosecute the CIA officers involved.

In the CIA operation known internally as the Rendition, Detention and Interrogation programme, intelligence agents took as many as 100 prisoners to "black sites" outside the US and interrogated them using methods such as waterboarding, slapping, humiliation, exposure to cold, and sleep deprivation.

The document suggests the Senate has concluded that top state department officials, including then-Secretary of State Colin Powell (centre-left) was not immediately informed of the methods

The state department document, a set of proposed talking points intended to guide White House officials' media appearances, was accidentally emailed to the Associated Press by the White House, the news agency says.

In addition to an understanding of how the state department views the Senate report, it offers new details about what the report concludes.

The document indicates some US ambassadors were informed of the CIA interrogation programme but were told not to inform superiors in the state department. Also, it indicates that the secretary of state during many of the Bush years, Colin Powell, was "kept in the dark" on interrogation methods at first.

Among the proposed responses to the Senate report is a description of the US interrogation programme as a "mistake" that the US must "acknowledge, learn from, and never repeat".

A recent European court decision has held Poland responsible for hosting a "black site" for the US prisoners

"The report leaves no doubt that the methods used to extract information from some terrorist suspects caused profound pain, suffering and humiliation," the document states.

"It also leaves no doubt that the harm caused by the use of these techniques outweighed any potential benefit."

But the document notes approvingly that "America's democratic system worked just as it was designed to work in bringing an end to actions inconsistent with our democratic values".

The memo's leak comes amid a dispute between the CIA and the Senate over the investigation's process.

On Thursday, a CIA internal investigator found agency employees acted improperly when they searched Senate computers involved in the investigation.

CIA Director John Brennan has apologised to Senate intelligence committee leaders and opened an accountability board to investigate whether the officers should be disciplined, a spokesman said.

President Barack Obama ordered a halt to the CIA's enhanced interrogation programme soon after taking office in 2009.

The Senate voted in April to make an unclassified summary of its report on the programme public.

The CIA and some Republicans dispute some of the findings, saying the report contains errors.

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Imam of China's largest mosque killed in Xinjiang

Mr Tahir's death in front of the Id Kah mosque came after clashes in Yarkant county, which is in the same prefecture

The imam of China's largest mosque - in the city of Kashgar in Xinjiang - has been killed in what appears to be a targeted assassination.

Jume Tahir, 74, was reportedly stabbed after he led early morning prayers at the Id Kah mosque on Wednesday.

His killing came two days after dozens of people were reportedly killed or injured in clashes with police in Yarkant county, in the same prefecture.

The reasons for his death remain unclear.

But the BBC's Damian Grammaticas in Beijing says Mr Tahir, who was from Xinjiang's mainly Muslim Uighur ethnic minority, was a vocal and public supporter of Chinese policies in the region.

Radio Free Asia quoted an unnamed shopowner near Id Kah as saying he saw a body lying in a pool of blood front of the mosque in the morning and police clearing a huge crowd that had gathered. He was told the body was that of Mr Tahir.

A hasty burial was conducted by the late afternoon and the funeral procession was heavily guarded by military and police, according to The Los Angeles Times .

Shortly after his death, police sealed off roads in and out of Kashgar and cut internet and text messaging links to other parts of China. Those restrictions have since been lifted.

Mr Tahir was appointed imam of the 600-year-old mosque by China's ruling Communist Party.

Some say he was deeply unpopular among many Uighurs who disliked the fact that he praised Communist Party policies while preaching in his mosque.

He had also echoed the official government line that blamed the rising level of violence in Xinjiang on Uighur separatists and extremists, says our correspondent.

The 600-year-old mosque is one of the most prominent landmarks in Kashgar city

Groups of soldiers have also been patrolling the streets of Kashgar

On Monday, a knife-wielding gang attacked a police station and government offices triggering clashes that killed "dozens" of Uighur and Han Chinese civilians, according to state media outlet Xinhua.

But activists disputed this account and said that local Uighurs were protesting against a Chinese crackdown on the observance of Ramadan, which ended on Monday.

Reports surfaced earlier this month that some government departments in Xinjiang were banning Muslim staff from fasting during Ramadan, and several university students told the BBC that they were being forced to have meals with professors.

There has been an upsurge in Xinjiang-linked violence that authorities have attributed to Uighur separatists.

In May at least 31 people were killed when two cars crashed through an Urumqi market and explosives were thrown. In March, a mass stabbing at Kunming railway station killed 29 people.

In response Chinese authorities have launched a year-long security campaign which includes increased police and troop presence in key cities and towns in Xinjiang. Scores of people have been arrested, and some sentenced to lengthy jail terms or death.

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Russia ordered to pay $2.5bn to Yukos shareholders

Former Yukos boss Mikhail Khodorkovsky spent 10 years in jail

Russia has been ordered to pay about $2.5bn (£1.5bn; 1.9bn euros) to former shareholders in defunct oil group Yukos by the European Court of Human Rights.

Russia's Justice Ministry said the ruling was "unfair" and it had three months to appeal against the decision.

Earlier this week, a court in The Hague told Russia to pay $50bn to former Yukos shareholders.

It said Russian officials had manipulated the legal system to bankrupt the company and jail its boss.

Russia has already said it will appeal against the Hague court's ruling.

The latest ruling from the European Court of Human Rights stated: "The respondent state is to pay the applicant company's shareholders as they stood at the time of the company's liquidation and, as the case may be, their legal successors and heirs 1,866,104,634 euros, plus any tax that may be chargeable."

The court also ruled that Russia should pay 300,000 euros in costs and expenses.

It went on to say that Russia had six months to come with a "comprehensive plan" to pay the shareholders.

'Worth the effort'

Shareholders had been seeking almost 38bn euros in compensation.

"All Yukos shareholders will benefit from this decision," said Steven Theede, the company's former chief executive.

"The pursuit of this case, originally filed in April 2004, was to ensure that Yukos shareholders obtained recompense for the wrongful acts of the Russian Federation.

"It has been worth the effort."

The compensation to shareholders represents the biggest yet awarded by the court.

"The awarded amount is already totally unprecedented in the human rights field," said Jan Kleinheisterkamp, associate professor of law at the London School of Economics.

"The 1.9bn euros is humongous in terms of compensation granted by the European Court of Human Rights."

Yukos was disbanded in 2007 after filing for bankruptcy in 2006. It was controlled by Mikhail Khodorkovsky, once Russia's richest man, who spent ten years in jail after being convicted of fraud and tax evasion.

He was pardoned in December last year.

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Italian police secure mafia arrests across Europe

The latest police raids targeted a clan of the 'Ndrangheta - said to be the biggest cocaine smugglers in Europe

Italian police have secured the arrest of several members of a mafia clan across Europe.

The agents had been working from information given to them by a woman who had at one time been held as a virtual prisoner by the clan.

Sixteen clan members were held in the Netherlands, Italy and Germany, accused of smuggling cocaine across Europe.

The clan was based in Rosarno in the far south of Italy, a stronghold of the criminal 'Ndrangheta crime syndicate.

The 'Ndrangheta gangs are hard for the police to penetrate because they are based on extremely tight-knit family units, the BBC's Alan Johnston reports from Rome.

But in this case someone who knew the clan intimately was ready to talk, our correspondent adds.

In 2005, one of the members of the Cacciola clan committed suicide, after which his widow was forced to live with her mafiosi in-laws.

She described herself as being forced to endure almost slave-like conditions but managed to get a message out appealing for help, and was rescued in a police raid.

Police say they have been using the information she provided in various ways over several years.

In June, Pope Francis condemned the mafia's "adoration of evil" at a mass in Calabria, the southern Italian base of the 'Ndrangheta.

Days later, the Catholic bishop of a small diocese in southern Italy suspended all church processions after a parade took a detour to salute a mafia boss who was under house arrest.

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Argentina defaults for second time

Mr Kicillof said Argentina offered the holdouts similar terms

Argentina has defaulted on its debt - for the second time in 13 years - after last-minute talks in New York with a group of bond-holders ended in failure.

So-called "vulture fund" investors were demanding a full pay-out of $1.3bn (£766m) on bonds they hold.

Argentina has said it cannot afford to do so, and has accused them of using its debt problems to make a big profit.

A US judge had set a deadline of 04:00 GMT on Thursday for a deal. The crisis stems from Argentina's 2001 default.

Late on Wednesday evening, Argentina's Economy Minister Axel Kicillof said the investors had rejected the government's latest offer.

"Unfortunately, no agreement was reached and the Republic of Argentina will imminently be in default," Daniel Pollack, the court-appointed mediator in the case, said in a statement on Wednesday evening.

The fresh default is not expected to affect Argentina's economy in the same way it did in 2001, when dozens were killed in street protests and the authorities froze savers' accounts to halt a run on the banks.

"The full consequences of default are not predictable, but they certainly are not positive," Mr Pollack said.

Speaking at a news conference in New York, Mr Kicillof said Argentina would not do anything illegal.

Bond reaction

The investors, also known as "hold-outs", are US hedge funds that bought debt cheaply after Argentina's economic crisis.

They never agreed to the restructuring accepted by the majority of bond-holders.

President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner has described as vultures the minority bond-holders - including Aurelius Capital Management and NML Capital.

She accuses them of taking advantage of Argentina's debt problems to make large profits.

Ratings agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) downgraded the country to "default" earlier on Wednesday, although the price of the bonds did not react.

S&P noted that it could revise the rating if Argentina were to find some way to make the payments.

The hedge funds are demanding Argentina make interest payments on debt which it defaulted on in 2001, even though it was bought at less than face value.

Supporters of President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner protest against hedge funds in Buenos Aires

The US courts have blocked payments to other bondholders who agreed a separate deal with Argentina, until agreement with the "hold-outs" is reached.

Mr Kicillof said he planned to return to Argentina after the news conference, saying the country would do what is needed to deal with what he called an unfair situation.

He reiterated that Argentina could not pay the hedge funds without triggering a clause that would force it to renegotiate with bondholders who accepted new debt agreements.

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Analysis

Katy WatsonBBC South America Business reporter

When Argentina's Economy Minister flew to New York on Tuesday for the talks, people took that as a positive sign that the two sides were now talking.

But Axel Kicillof's lengthy address on Wednesday evening dashed those hopes - Argentina was not going to agree to anything that would compromise the country.

At the heart of this is a feeling that Argentina has been treated badly by the international financial system. Mr Kicillof made the point that the vultures always win and the people lose.

Just before the announcement was made there was a small rally in Buenos Aires' Plaza de Mayo, people handing out leaflets saying that the country wouldn't negotiate.

No doubt those people will be happy with the stand that Argentina has taken, but a default will make life harder. The country is already in recession and inflation is high.

Most people think the issue is too complicated - what they do know is that they want to just get on with their lives, whether the vultures are circling or not.

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